[Trump Tariffs Shock] How Will Japanese Sake Exports Be Affected?

Voices from the Field: Current Status of US Exports

Looking at the 2024 Japanese sake export performance, the United States ranks first in volume (8,003kL, a 123.1% increase from the previous year).

Many sake breweries have found export channels to the United States, and many are currently producing largely for the US market.

For example, Homare Sake Brewery in Fukushima Prefecture, which won the Champion Sake at IWC 2015, directs 70% of its export value of approximately 220 million yen last year to the United States.

Affected by the tariffs, Homare Sake Brewery's President Karahashi stated, "There has been no change in orders until May, but we wonder if cancellations will start coming in soon. The trading companies in between are also saying 'they cannot foresee the future,'" suggesting that they are in a situation where they must significantly change their business plans. (TBS News, April 2025)

Triple Hardship—Cost Increases, Tariffs, and Inflation—Hitting the Japanese Sake Industry

In fact, not just the Trump tariffs, but the Japanese sake industry is currently facing three challenges:

Rising Raw Material Costs: In Japan, there has been a price surge in rice overall, and the price of sake rice has increased by about 30% compared to 2024. President Shimizu of Shimizu Seizaburo Shoten, which produces the highly acclaimed and award-winning "Zaku," also considers securing sake rice an urgent issue. (TBS News, April 2025)
Cost Increases Due to Trump Tariffs: US tariffs that previously only applied a volume-based tax (about 3 cents per liter) now have an additional 10% value-based tariff on the export price. This particularly impacts premium sake and may further increase to as high as 24% in the future.
US Inflationary Pressure: Due to inflation in the US, more people are refraining from dining out, and more establishments are shifting from high-priced to more affordable alcoholic beverages.

Current Response from Importers and Sake Breweries

How to utilize the current 90-day grace period (until early July) is key, and not limited to Japanese sake, but some US importers are increasing orders in advance during the grace period to secure as much inventory as possible under the 10% tariff.

From a more long-term perspective, sake breweries are expected to strengthen diversification of export destination countries. For example, expansion to Europe, where Japanese cuisine is trending and sake demand is increasing, or to South Korea, where Japanese sake is gaining popularity.

Conclusion

Although the Japanese sake industry had been experiencing tailwinds with "traditional sake brewing" being registered as a UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage at the end of 2024, the situation has completely changed due to tariffs in the US market.

The situation will inevitably change further depending on whether the additional 24% tariff is implemented, so we will continue to follow future developments.

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How important is the United States to Japanese sake exports?

It ranks first by volume. In 2024 the United States took 8,003 kilolitres, 123.1% of the previous year. Many breweries built their export channel around the US market, and some produce largely for it.

What changed for sake under the 2025 US tariffs?

Until then the United States applied only a volume-based tax of around 3 cents per litre. An additional 10% value-based tariff on the export price was added on top, with the possibility of rising as high as 24%.

Which sake is hit hardest?

Premium sake. Because the new element is charged on the export value rather than the volume, the higher the price of the bottle, the larger the increase.

What are the other cost pressures on the industry?

Two, alongside the tariff. Rice prices in Japan have risen broadly, with sake rice up roughly 30% against 2024, and inflation in the destination markets is squeezing what the final consumer will pay.

How is the industry responding?

In the short term some US importers brought orders forward to hold inventory under the lower rate. Over a longer horizon, breweries are diversifying their export destinations, particularly into Europe, where Japanese cuisine is growing, and South Korea, where sake is gaining ground.

Can I place a sample order?

Yes. At Sakura Sake Shop we accept sample orders from a single bottle. You can taste the sake and then choose the products before any formal trade.

Can I get a price list?

After we hear about your sales market, we provide a custom quotation matched to your needs.

The United States took 8,003 kilolitres of Japanese sake in 2024, first by volume. The 2025 tariff added a value-based charge on top of the existing per-litre duty, which falls hardest on premium bottles.

Alongside it, sake rice rose roughly 30% against 2024. Breweries have responded by diversifying destinations, particularly into Europe and South Korea.

Reviewing where your sake comes from and goes to?

Since its foundation Sakura Sake Shop has specialized in exporting Japanese sake. We have direct trading relationships with 70+ breweries and a track record of exporting to 20+ countries and regions.